Social Commerce and Marketing
We went looking for the size of the UK social commerce market. The lowest figure and the highest differ by a factor of thirty, and every one of them is published by somebody selling into the market they are measuring. This is about being asked to reorganise a business around numbers nobody can check.

SOCIAL COMMERCE AND MARKETING
The point of least prestige
Written 16 September 2026, Hartwell, Northampton
THE POINT OF LEAST PRESTIGE
It is a Thursday in Hartwell and the light is wrong.
That is the first thing you learn about glass. You cannot see whether a window is clean by looking at it. You have to look along it, at an angle, with the light behind you, and even then the pane will tell you one thing from the path and another from inside the room. A window that is spotless at nine in the morning has a film on it at four in the afternoon because the sun has moved. The work is not difficult. Knowing whether you have done it is difficult.
There is a ladder against a gable. There is a pole system in the back of the van, and a tank of filtered water, and a set of brushes that get replaced more often than anybody who has not done this would guess. There is a sheet with a round on it, streets, houses, a six week cycle, and the sheet is the most valuable thing this business owns.
This is a document about a marketplace, and it is written from a ladder.
We want to deal with the obvious objection immediately, because it is a reasonable one, and because the answer to it is the reason all six of these articles exist.
The objection is this. Why would anybody take a window cleaner's account of how markets, platforms, ratings and marketing actually work?
The answer was written in 1958 by a sociologist at the University of Chicago named Everett Hughes, and it is not an answer about kindness or dignity or giving the working man his due. It is an argument about method. About where you should stand if you want to see how something works.
Hughes had spent years studying occupations at the bottom of the prestige ladder. Janitors, junk peddlers, people whose jobs are not on anybody's list of careers. And he had come to think that the value of that work was not what he first assumed. He wrote this, on page forty nine of Men and Their Work.
I have now come to the belief that although the problems of people in these lines of work are as interesting and important as any other, their deeper value lies in the insights they yield about work behaviour in any and all occupations. It is not that it puts one into the position to debunk the others, but simply that processes which are hidden in other occupations come more readily to view in these lowly ones. We may be here dealing with a fundamental matter of method in social science, that of finding the best possible laboratory for study of a given series of mechanisms.
And then the sentence that gives this article its title, from pages forty eight and forty nine.
It is a fruitful thing to start study of any social phenomenon at the point of least prestige. For, since prestige is so much a matter of symbols, and even of pretensions, however well merited, there goes with prestige a tendency to preserve a front which hides the inside of things. A front of names, of indirection, of secrecy. On the other hand, in things of less prestige, the core may be more easy of access.
Read that as what it is, which is a claim about visibility.
Prestige builds a front. A front hides the machinery. The higher the standing of a trade, the more of its actual working is concealed behind names, procedures, discretion, and the general reluctance of successful people to describe how they really operate. That is not dishonesty. It is what prestige is made of.
Down here there is no front. There is nowhere to put one. Everything this business does happens in the street, on a ladder, at a door, in view of the neighbours. When something goes wrong it goes wrong in public. When a system behaves badly towards us, it behaves badly in a way that can be described in full, because there is no reputation requiring it to be softened.
On Hughes's argument, a window cleaner writing about how the small business marketplace actually works is not an odd person to be doing it. He is standing in the better laboratory.
Hughes adds one more condition, on page forty eight, and we are going to try to hold to it throughout.
Until we can find a point of view and concepts which will enable us to make comparisons between the junk peddler and the professor without intent to debunk the one and patronise the other, we cannot do our best work in this field.
No debunking. No patronising. Nobody in this article is a villain and nobody is a hero, including us.
So, what this document is, and what it is not.
It is an opinion. We think a particular thing about the marketplace being described to small trades, and Section Fifteen says what it is plainly.
It stands on evidence, and the evidence is other people's. Sociologists, economists, statisticians and market researchers, named, dated, page referenced, and, where we have quoted them, quoted in their own words rather than ours.
And the join between those two is left visible. Every time we move from something that has been measured to something we believe, we say so in the sentence where it happens. That is the single rule this article is built on. Where we have broken it, Section Thirteen records it.
It is not advice. We are not telling any other business what to do.
It is not a complaint. Several sections describe arrangements that cost this trade money and standing. None of them alleges wrongdoing by anybody, and where we have no documented conduct to attach to a name, we name nobody.
And nothing in it comes from a job. No customer appears in this document. Not named, not anonymised, not with the details changed, not as a composite. Everything we know from fourteen years of standing outside other people's houses stays outside this document. Where we needed an illustration, we have used a published one from somebody else's research, and Section Eight explains exactly why.
Five articles before this one audited a subject each. Cybersecurity and sustainability, financial resilience, reviewing culture, chargebacks, and artificial intelligence. This one audits the marketplace itself. The claim, put to every one van business in Britain, that there is now a market of a particular shape, that you must buy your way into it, and that the alternative is to disappear.
Underneath all of it runs one finding, borrowed from a historian of science called Theodore Porter, and it is this. A trade that ran on personal knowledge and local reputation is being made to run on numbers instead. And when numbers replace judgement, that is not progress. It is a symptom. Of distrust, and of the weakening of the community that used to do the judging.
Everything that follows is that argument, tested against a round.
ONE. A NUMBER WITH NO PARENT
We went looking for the size of the UK social commerce market, the thing every small business is being told it must get into. Here is what came back, all of it for roughly the same year.
From eMarketer, eleven point seven five billion pounds for 2026.
From retail research, over twenty four billion pounds, heading toward forty billion pounds by the end of the decade.
From a market research vendor, eighty point five three billion US dollars for 2025, rising to one hundred and one point six nine billion US dollars for 2026.
From a second market research vendor, three hundred and seventy three point zero two billion US dollars for 2026, reaching five hundred and twenty three point six two billion US dollars by 2031.
The lowest and the highest of those differ by a factor of roughly thirty.
They cannot all be measuring the same thing. Some are almost certainly counting influenced transactions rather than completed ones. Some are probably counting the whole of social advertising. At least one looks like a global figure wearing a UK label. We do not know which is which, and we are not going to pretend we do.
We are publishing all four anyway. Not because we know which is right, we do not, but because a small business making a real decision about real money is being handed a thirty fold spread and told that it is data. If we picked one and printed it, we would be making exactly the choice that produced this mess. Selecting the number that suits the argument and presenting it as though it were the only one.
And there is one more thing to say about those figures, which we will say once and then apply to everybody including ourselves for the rest of the article. Every one of them is published by an organisation that sells reports or services into the market it is measuring.
That does not make them wrong. It makes them interested. Section Three has a name for what happens when a measurement is produced by the people who benefit from what it shows, and the name is not fraud. It is much more ordinary than that, and much harder to correct.
If the market size figures are the disease at scale, here it is in miniature.
TikTok says more than three hundred thousand UK small businesses sell through TikTok Shop. In the same set of results, for the same metric, the figure two hundred thousand also appears.
That is one platform, describing its own business, in two incompatible ways, in material that surfaces together.
We have not been able to establish which is current. Both are here. One hundred thousand businesses is the difference between them, which is to say that the discrepancy alone is larger than most of the markets anybody in this trade operates in.
We are not alleging dishonesty. Figures get updated. Old pages linger. A definition changes and the previous number carries on circulating. That is the point. Nobody has to lie for a number to become unreliable. It only has to be repeated by people who have no way of checking it and no reason to.
Fairness requires this next part, and it goes here rather than in Section Thirteen, because a rule that only applies to other people is not a rule.
An earlier version of this research recorded that internet sales were twenty seven point four per cent of all retail sales in Great Britain in July 2026.
The Office for National Statistics figure is twenty eight point three per cent. Ours was wrong.
It was checked, it was found to be wrong, and it has been corrected. It is logged here rather than quietly overwritten, because a document whose entire argument is about the traceability of figures does not get to silently fix its own.
There is exactly one figure in this field that has a neutral producer, a consistent methodology, a monthly publication schedule and an open licence. Internet sales as a share of all retail sales, Great Britain, July 2026. Twenty eight point three per cent. That is the Office for National Statistics, series J four M C, internet sales as a percentage of total retail sales. The bulletin is Retail sales, Great Britain, July 2026, released on the twenty first of August 2026, under the Open Government Licence version three point zero.
That is what a usable figure looks like. It has a series identifier. You can go and get it. If we have misread it, you can prove it in under a minute, which is the property that none of the four market size figures possess.
Two things follow from it.
First, roughly seventy per cent of retail spending in Great Britain still does not happen online at all. And this is retail, the most digitised category of consumer spending there is. For a mobile trade selling a physical service, performed at a physical address, by a person who has to travel there, the online share of the relevant market is lower still. Nobody has ever cleaned a gutter through a phone.
Second, and less comfortable for the story everyone is told. The same measure was twenty nine point two per cent in June 2026. Over that month the online share fell. Online sales values were down three point nine per cent month on month, having been up two point five per cent in June.
The longer run is upward. Online values were six point five per cent higher than July 2025, and eleven per cent higher across the three months to July than the same three months a year earlier. We are not claiming online retail is in decline. It is not.
We are pointing out something narrower. The one series in this field you can actually check does not move in a straight line, and the narrative sold to small businesses has no room in it for a month that goes down.
Here is the question that bothered us. These figures are not hidden. Anybody could lay them side by side in an afternoon, as we did. Why does nobody?
Part of the answer is in a 1999 paper by Sarah L Jack and Alistair R Anderson of the University of Aberdeen, writing about entrepreneurship education. They are describing why the enterprise agenda is so rarely subjected to scrutiny, and the first reason is that nobody can pin down what is being talked about. This is from page one hundred and fifteen.
Entrepreneurship has become an omnibus word, an overloaded concept and one that carries a variety of meanings which pundits pick and choose from at will. Its meaning ranges from small business operation, through new venture creation to innovation and individualism. As a heuristic the breadth of the concept allows it to be used in diverse rhetoric, explanation and justification.
A word broad enough to mean anything cannot be measured, because there is nothing stable to count. And a term that allows it to be used in diverse rhetoric, explanation and justification is not a failed definition. It is a working tool, and it is working exactly as intended.
The second reason is about atmosphere. From page one hundred and fourteen, they describe a rationale which is often uncritical, and which appears to operate at almost an ideological level of taken for granted wisdom.
You do not audit the taken for granted. There is no moment at which it occurs to you that the thing might need checking, because checking is what you do to claims, and this has stopped presenting as a claim.
And then the sentence that answers the question properly. Jack and Anderson report it from Goss, 1991, on page one hundred and sixteen.
Goss, however, rather cynically notes that the enterprise culture's affection for small business is rooted as much in the latter's intangible qualities as in precise measures of its effectiveness.
Read that slowly, because it is the load bearing sentence of this section.
The enthusiasm for small business is founded on what small business is felt to represent, as much as on any measurement of what it achieves. Grit. Independence. Self reliance. The person who had a go. Those are not findings. They are qualities, and qualities are not audited.
Nobody checks the figures because the figures are not what the enthusiasm rests on. A compliment does not have a methodology, and this trade has been receiving a compliment for forty years.
Jack and Anderson detect one further thread in all this, which they name themselves, and we are giving it one sentence and moving on, because the rest is an argument about post war capitalism and would turn this into a different article. They see in the enterprise agenda the production of what they call the friendly face of capitalism. An ideology that had taken damage in the post war years, finding in the small firm something likeable to be represented by.
That phrase is Jack and Anderson's, not Goss's. We have made that mistake ourselves in our own working files and corrected it. See Section Thirteen.
There is a more general version of what is going on, and it comes from Theodore Porter, a historian of science whose 1995 book Trust in Numbers asks why quantification spreads. Why so many decisions that were once made by judgement are now made by measurement.
His answer is not the expected one. It is not that numbers turned out to be more accurate. On page four he writes that where a consensus of experts is hard to reach, or where it does not satisfy outsiders, mechanical objectivity comes into its own. And on page eight.
A decision made by the numbers, or by explicit rules of some other sort, has at least the appearance of being fair and impersonal. Scientific objectivity thus provides an answer to a moral demand for impartiality and fairness. Quantification is a way of making decisions without seeming to decide. Objectivity lends authority to officials who have very little of their own.
Quantification is a way of making decisions without seeming to decide.
That sentence runs underneath every remaining section of this article, so it is worth being precise about what it claims. Porter is not saying numbers are bad. He is saying that the spread of quantification into a field is evidence about the condition of trust in that field. That numbers get reached for where judgement has stopped being accepted, and that a decision rendered as a measurement acquires the appearance of not having been anybody's decision at all.
Note his exact word, because it matters, and we had it wrong ourselves for a while. Not impartial. Impersonal. Impartial means unbiased. Impersonal means there is no person there. That is the property being purchased. Not accuracy, but the disappearance of the decider.
Hold that until Section Nine, where a five star average turns out to be doing precisely this job for a trade that used to be judged by neighbours.
We want to end this section with a man who spent a career counting things, because his caution is worth more than anybody's enthusiasm.
Robert Putnam's Bowling Alone is one of the most cited works of social science of the last thirty years, and it is built on an enormous quantity of membership data. And Putnam is careful, repeatedly, about what that data can bear. That nominal membership is not the same as involvement, and that a count of who belongs to something may be measuring the wrong quantity entirely.
The most quoted quantifier of community decline, warning that his own instrument may not be measuring the thing he cares about.
And here we have to declare a limit of our own. Our copy of Bowling Alone has a broken font map. The text is recoverable. Every numeral in it is not. Decoded sentences read, between the early s and the early s.
So we have used Putnam's argument and not one of his figures, and we could not have used his figures if we had wanted to. That is stated here, in the article, rather than buried. And there is an accident in it that landed the right way up, because the source we cannot take numbers from is the source warning us about numbers.
None of the above tells us how many houses to knock on. So here is the arithmetic this business actually runs on, offered as the check.
A residential street in a village like this one has somewhere between twenty and sixty houses on it. A working day gets through a certain number of them, and the number depends on access, height, frames, whether there is a conservatory, and whether the gate is locked. A gutter clearance is priced by the metre and by the height, and by whether there is a lightwell or a flat roof in the way. A render clean is priced by the elevation and by what has grown on it. Block paving is priced by the square metre and by how much has grown into the joints.
Every one of those numbers is checkable by the customer standing next to us. That is not a boast. It is the ordinary condition of a trade that works in front of people. A price for a job on a specific house is the least abstract number in this entire article, and it is the only one in it that anybody is going to be asked to pay.
Set that against a thirty fold spread on the size of a market.
The question this article is asking is not whether the online market is large. It is whether anybody reporting its size has any idea, and whether a business that cannot check a figure should be reorganising itself around it.
TWO. FOURTEEN YEARS OF KNOCKING ON DOORS
This is the control group.
Everything after this section describes a business operating inside a system of ratings, platforms, search results and paid introductions. This section describes the same business operating with none of them, for fourteen years, and it is here because you cannot say what a system changed unless you can say what was there before it.
The first round, in 2001, was one hundred and twenty houses.
Six pounds a house. Three pounds for conservatory windows, and that did not include the roof. It still does not, and the distinction has caused more confusion over twenty five years than any other single thing in this trade.
The tools were traditional. Squeegee, T bar washer, bucket, ladders, extension pole. Washing up liquid for detergent. The water was soapy and it made bubbles, and anybody who watched you work could see exactly what was happening and why.
No water fed pole. No purified water. No tank in a van, because there was no van.
There was a shopping trolley.
It lasted somewhere between six and twelve months, which was the length of time it took to pass a driving test and buy a car. There was no arrangement with anybody about the trolley. It was taken, it was used, and when it was finished with it was returned to the retailer it belonged to.
We are including that detail because leaving it out would make the beginning of this business sound more organised than it was, and because the gap between a shopping trolley and a filtration system is the entire distance this article is trying to describe.
Why this work. Not a calling, and there is no point pretending otherwise.
Easy access. Nobody's permission was required to start. No boss. Almost no overhead, a bucket, a squeegee, a ladder, a trolley. And you were earning the same day, which matters more than anything else on that list when there is no money.
And one thing that was not about money. The alternative. Other jobs had been tried. What they had in common was managers and supervisors who were mostly rude, positional power struggles that had nothing to do with the work, and tasks that were both demeaning and not difficult, which is an unpleasant combination, because there is nothing in it to be good at.
Window cleaning meant working with real people rather than inside a working environment. That was the trade off, and Section Eight is about what it cost.
Here is the script that was used at doors, unchanged for years, in the words it was said in.
Hello, I am Matt and I run Shining Windows. Do you have a window cleaning service provider? If not, would you like your windows to be cleaned, and how much would you like to pay?
Read the last clause again. And how much would you like to pay.
There is no marketing textbook in the world that recommends that. It hands the price to the customer before any relationship exists, before anything has been demonstrated, at the precise moment when conventional advice says to anchor high. It is, by every standard measure, the wrong thing to say.
It worked, and it worked for years.
We think it worked for a reason the rest of this article is about. In 2001, in these villages, the constraint was not price. It was availability. Asking what somebody wanted to pay was not weakness. It was an accurate reading of a market where the customer's problem was not cost but the impossibility of finding anybody at all.
It also does something else, which took us a long time to see. It makes the customer commit to a number out loud, in their own voice, at their own door. Whatever they say next, they have participated in setting it. Section Nine describes a system in which four firms are handed an address simultaneously and race each other downwards. The sentence above is the exact opposite arrangement, and it was arrived at by a twenty something with a shopping trolley who had never read anything about pricing.
What did a refusal sound like? No thank you. That is it. That is the whole of it.
Relaxed, ordinary, and not a rejection of a person. Most people said yes, because there were very few service providers around. That is a recollection of one area over one period and not a count, and we are marking it as such.
But the texture of the no is the thing worth recording, because it is gone. It was possible to knock on a stranger's door in 2001 and be turned down pleasantly. Section Four is about what happened to that.
A round that paid a week's wages took a few days, or a week of leafleting.
That sentence will look implausible to anybody who has started a service business in the last ten years, and it should. It is the single clearest measure of the difference between the two economies this article is comparing.
After that it stopped being door knocking. Phone calls and texts flooded in. Requests arrived without being asked for, which is Section Three's ninety per cent finding happening in real time in a Northamptonshire village, twenty four years before we read the research that named it.
So what were those customers actually judging? This is the question the section turns on, and the answer is not what we expected.
They were judging their windows.
Not credentials, not reviews, not a portfolio, not a brand. They looked at their own glass, formed a view that something ought to be done about it, and had discovered that doing something about it was surprisingly hard. The binding constraint was finding anyone at all.
So the first thing being judged was availability, and availability was scarce.
What they judged afterwards is the part that matters, and it comes down to four things. Fair pricing, flexibility, regularity, and the quality of the work. Not one of those is visible before the first job. Every one of them can only be assessed by having the work done and watching what happens next.
That is the whole of the analogue mechanism, stated plainly. You could not be judged in advance, because there was nothing to judge in advance. You were judged on the second visit, and the eighth, and the fortieth.
And one specific thing did the most work of all. The frames.
Most window cleaners cleaned the glass and left the frames. That was standard, it was widely accepted, and twenty five years later it is still what most of them do. Cleaning the frames took longer, cost more in time, and could not be charged for separately.
Once people had seen it, they wanted it. The round grew on it.
Consider what kind of information that is. It is not a claim. It is not a promise, a certification, a star rating or a guarantee. It is a physical difference, visible on a house, from a pavement, by anybody walking past, and it could be compared against the house next door without either party saying a word.
That is what a reputation was made of before there was a mechanism for reputation. Work that could be seen, on a street, by people who lived there.
And what it cost. February. No furlough. No sick pay. No reserve. When the weather made the work impossible, the answer was to sit indoors and wait for it to clear.
And here is the part we would not have believed if we had not been told it directly. There were no complaints. People rang up to say that the weather was bad, and that he should stay indoors, keep himself warm, and stay safe.
In his words. People used to care for me as an individual.
We are quoting that because it is the most important sentence in this section, and because it will be tested, twice. In Section Four the same trade is being told its rain policy is unacceptable. In Section Ten a stranger who has never bought anything is owed a reply within the hour.
Whatever changed between 2001 and now, it was not the weather.
The business has run since 2001. Across all of it there has been exactly one period of nearly stopping, and it was not commercial. It was music. Playing it, enjoying it, being in his twenties, having friends and a social life and living well.
Nothing else has ever put the tools down. Not a bad year, not a quiet January, not a lost round.
Snow, storms and rain stop the work. They always have.
And health stops the work. That has become a larger factor with age, and it is a fact about this business that a reader is entitled to know. The person who does the work is disabled.
That sentence is here once, stated as fact, and it is not an appeal and not an excuse. It is in this document for the same reason the price of a conservatory window is in it. Because an account of how a business actually operates that leaves out its actual constraints is not an account. It is advertising.
Section Four records what happens when that fact meets a system that has no field for it.
Four things are established here, and the rest of the article is measured against them.
One. A local trade could be built, from nothing, with hand tools and a borrowed trolley, to a week's wages in a week, because the constraint was availability rather than competition or cost.
Two. Nothing about the provider could be assessed in advance. Judgement happened after the work, repeatedly, over years, and it was made by people who could see the result on their own house.
Three. The differentiator was physical and visible from the street. Not a claim about quality. Quality itself, in a form a neighbour could check.
Four. The relationship ran in both directions. The customer was owed clean windows. The window cleaner was owed a phone call telling him to stay indoors when it was dangerous.
Every one of those four has since been replaced by something, and the next eleven sections are about what by.
THREE. HOW THE WORK ACTUALLY ARRIVES
Section One was about numbers with no parent. This section is about the opposite problem. A finding with a very clear parent, repeatedly measured, entirely uncontroversial, and almost completely absent from the material that tells small businesses how to market themselves.
The finding is that small firms get their customers by recommendation, and they always have.
That is not a slogan and it is not our opinion. It has been measured, by academics, in Britain, on samples large enough to take seriously. The strange part is not the finding. The strange part is what happened to it afterwards.
Our source is a paper by David Stokes and Nicholas C Wilson, both then of Kingston University, published in the International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management under the title, Entrepreneurship and marketing education, time for the road less travelled.
They are not primarily reporting new data. They are reviewing what is already known and asking why the teaching of marketing does not reflect it, which is why this paper is useful to us, and why we are going to be careful throughout to name the researchers who produced each figure rather than crediting them to the two men reporting it. This is from their manuscript pages eight and nine.
One study of three hundred plus owner managers, Stokes and others, 1997, found that over ninety per cent of owner managers of small businesses used word of mouth communications as their primary way of transmitting marketing messages. Recommendations from existing customers were the most frequently claimed type of promotional activity. Moreover, the second most popular method of customer acquisition was recommendations from other sources, that is, non customers.
Three things in that passage, and they are separate claims.
Over ninety per cent, as the primary method. Not used it, not valued it. Primary. More than three hundred owner managers, and for nine in ten of them, the main way marketing messages travelled was one person telling another.
Recommendations from existing customers were the most frequently claimed promotional activity of any kind. Ahead of advertising. Ahead of everything a marketing budget would normally buy.
And second place went to recommendations from people who were not even customers. That is the one worth sitting with. The two top methods are both other people talking, and the runner up is other people talking who have never bought anything. The neighbour who has never used us but has watched us work on the street is, on this evidence, a more significant channel than most paid advertising.
Note the parent. That ninety per cent figure is Stokes and others, 1997, reported by Stokes and Wilson. It is a 1997 survey, which makes it old, and we are not going to pretend it is current. What it establishes is a baseline, and the reason we trust the baseline is what comes next.
The obvious objection is that this describes people with no ambition. One van operations who rely on word of mouth because they cannot afford anything else. That objection was tested. From manuscript page nine.
In a more recent study, of established small firms of more than five employees, nearly two thirds of the companies identified as high growth claimed recommendations to be the most effective way of attracting customers. Blackburn and Stokes, 2003.
Firms with staff. Firms identified as growing. Nearly two thirds of them saying the same thing.
Parent again, and it is a different one. This figure is Blackburn and Stokes, 2003, not Stokes and Wilson. Two separate research teams, six years apart, reported in one paragraph of one paper. We are separating them because Section One would insist on it.
So. A method used by nine in ten small firms, rated most effective by two thirds of the fast growing ones, measured repeatedly across sectors and sizes. Now look at what the marketing profession does with it. Again from manuscript page nine.
The discussions on word of mouth total about one page of the seven hundred and eighteen pages in Kotler, 2003. Brassington and Pettitt, 2006, run to a few paragraphs in over one thousand pages, with no listing of word of mouth in the glossary or index.
Kotler is the standard marketing textbook, the one that sits on the reading list of most marketing degrees in the English speaking world. One page in seven hundred and eighteen.
Brassington and Pettitt is the standard British one. A few paragraphs in over a thousand pages, and it is not in the index. A student could read that book cover to cover and never encounter, as a named topic, the thing nine out of ten small firms actually do.
It gets better. Of the twenty eight courses advertised by the Chartered Institute of Marketing on marketing communications, none of them major on word of mouth.
And, finally, the one that ought to be embarrassing. Business Link have a benchmark index that claims to be an extensive benchmarking resource for small business. However, the questionnaire and notes that create the input for the process contain no mention of word of mouth, or stimulating recommendations or referrals.
A government backed benchmarking tool, built specifically for small businesses, which does not ask about the single thing small businesses overwhelmingly report doing.
Stokes and Wilson's own conclusion is measured. There is, they write, a mismatch between what entrepreneurs actually do in order to acquire customers and what the discipline teaches.
We would put it less politely, and we will mark that this is our view and not theirs. The apparatus that sells marketing to small firms has a commercial reason to under describe the method that costs nothing. We cannot prove that and we are not asserting it as fact. We are saying the incentive exists, it points in exactly that direction, and Section One's rule, ask who benefits from the number being reported, applies to absences as well as to figures.
This next part changed how we think about our own business, and it is a straightforward empirical correction to something almost everybody in the trade believes.
Ask a business owner which customers refer the most, and they will tell you it is their best ones. The long standing, loyal, been with us for years customers. Stokes and colleagues found exactly that belief in 2002. From manuscript page ten.
Although this appears logical and the accepted wisdom of many business owners, it is often the opposite that is more accurate. A number of studies, for example East and others, 2000, have shown that it is the most recent customers that refer most frequently. They are enthused by positive recent experiences that they are keen to share with friends.
And then the sentence that explains why. Thus, it is stories that make recommendations, and more recent experiences tend to be the stories that we pass on the most.
That is cited at second hand. East and others, 2000, is the study. Stokes and Wilson are reporting it. We have not read the original and we are saying so.
It is stories that make recommendations. That is the load bearing sentence of this section, and possibly of the article.
A long standing customer of nine years has no story. Nothing happened. The windows are clean, the way they have been clean since 2017, on a Thursday, as expected. There is nothing to tell, and that absence of narrative is not a failure of the relationship. It is the relationship working perfectly.
A customer whose gutters were cleared last week during the first proper storm of the autumn has a story. It has a beginning, a problem, a person arriving, and a resolution. It survives being retold over a fence.
Loyalty and referral are not the same variable, and this trade has been conflating them for decades. Us included.
Now take that finding and put it next to the thing every small firm is currently told to do, which is to accumulate ratings.
A rating is not a story. It is what is left of a story after the story has been compressed for transmission across a system that cannot carry stories.
Five stars. Four stars. Great job, very tidy. The narrative, the storm, the ladder, the thing that was blocked, the person who turned up, is precisely the part that does not fit in the field, and it is precisely the part that East and colleagues found does the work.
The channel that small firms are being urged into is optimised to strip out the ingredient that makes referral function.
We are not going to develop that here, because it is Section Nine's whole subject. But this is where it begins, and it begins with a 2000 study about which customers refer, not with anybody's opinion about platforms.
There is a deeper reason underneath it, and it comes from Theodore Porter, whose book Trust in Numbers has been running underneath this article since Section One. Porter's subject is why quantification spreads, and his answer is not the one most people expect. It is not that numbers are more accurate. On page four he writes that where a consensus of experts is hard to reach, or where it does not satisfy outsiders, mechanical objectivity comes into its own.
Read that against a recommendation.
A recommendation from a neighbour is the opposite of mechanical objectivity. It is personal, unverifiable, non standardised, and entirely dependent on your relationship with the person making it. It cannot be audited and it does not scale. By every criterion Porter lists, it is a worse instrument.
And it is also, on the evidence above, what nine in ten small firms actually run on.
Porter's finding is that the substitution of numbers for judgement is not a sign of progress. It is a symptom. Of distrust, and of the weakening of the community that used to do the judging. A rating system is not an upgrade on a neighbour's word. It is what you build when there is no neighbour.
That is the argument of this entire article, and it is why Porter is in it.
We should show our own working, because a section arguing for transparency that does not disclose is worthless.
The window round grew street by street. Not by area, not by postcode targeting, not by leaflet drop. By one house on a street, then the house next door, then the one opposite. That is the mechanism the 1997 study describes, observed from inside, and it is slow and it compounds.
The render work comes from being watched. Render cleaning is the most visible thing we do. A rendered gable that was green on Monday and is not on Wednesday is a demonstration, performed in public, at the client's expense. More of that work has come from neighbours who saw it happen than from anything we have ever said about ourselves.
The block paving is the same pattern, one street removed. A restored drive is visible to everybody who walks past it, and drives are what people compare.
Commercial work has come through residential customers. Somebody whose house we clean works somewhere that needs its windows done, and mentions it. That is East and colleagues' finding wearing a high visibility vest. The person who refers is the one who has recently had the experience.
And we have paid for leads. We are not going to pretend otherwise, and Section Nine is not written from the outside. Some of it converted and some of it did not.
Three things this section is not claiming.
It is not claiming that advertising does not work. It is claiming that the dominant method reported by small firms is under described by the discipline that teaches marketing, and that this is measurable and odd.
It is not claiming these figures are current. The primary survey is from 1997, the growth study from 2003, the textbook counts from 2003 and 2006. They establish a baseline, not a snapshot of 2026. Anybody who repeats them as current is doing the thing Section One condemns.
And it is not claiming our own experience proves anything. Fourteen years of one business in one county is an anecdote. It is placed beside the research because the two agree, and we would have said so if they disagreed.
FOUR. THE YEAR THE RULES CHANGED
We went into this section looking for a scene.
That was the plan. Find the single moment, a job lost, a quote undercut, one conversation, where fourteen years of goodwill were visibly outranked by somebody's advertising budget. One scene, told properly, would carry the whole transition.
There is not one.
We asked the question directly and the answer was, no, not a singular date or event. No job. No conversation. No moment where it turned.
That absence is the finding, and it is a better finding than the scene would have been.
Nothing was taken. Nothing was announced. There was no day on which the rules changed and somebody said so. The conditions of the trade were altered gradually, by accumulation, and the alteration was only visible in retrospect, which is precisely what you would expect of a change that nobody decided and nobody is accountable for.
Section Eleven is about that shape. This section is about the year it started.
2015. The realisation was that being findable now mattered more than being known.
Those two words are doing a lot of work and they are not synonyms. Being known is a state that exists in other people. Several hundred households who have an opinion about you because you have cleaned their windows for a decade. Being findable is a state that exists in a system, and it can be switched off by somebody you have never met.
The response was not passive. A website was built. A year was spent studying search engine optimisation and marketing, which is worth pausing on, because it is a self employed window cleaner taking a year to learn a technical discipline in order to keep doing the job he was already doing perfectly well.
And in 2015 it worked, and it worked in a way that has since disappeared. In his words. Back then it was easy to be human online. People saw your post with a picture of quality and hired me.
A photograph of good work. That was the whole mechanism.
It is exactly the mechanism from Section Two, work visible on a street, judged by people who can see it, relocated onto a screen and still functioning. For a few years the new channel carried the old signal.
What was built was an e commerce website with online payments and online appointments. That is not a brochure page. It is infrastructure, built in 2015, by a one van business in a village.
Then Facebook. And what went on it was not advertising. Free cleans, given to people who could not afford to pay. In his words, it spread like wildfire.
We want to be careful here, because this is the sort of thing that gets told as a heartwarming marketing lesson and it is not one. The free cleans were not a customer acquisition strategy. They were given to people who could not afford a window cleaner. That they also worked is true and is beside the point. If this is the moment in the article where somebody decides we are recommending free work as a tactic, we have written it badly.
The cost. About eighteen pounds a month for the website in 2015. It is twenty eight pounds and eighty pence a month now.
That is a real number with a real parent, us, and it is the only cost figure in this article we can state with complete confidence. It has risen about sixty per cent in a decade. We are not going to build an argument on it. It is simply what the thing costs, stated, because Section One's rule applies to us as well.
Three shifts happened in the customers, in order.
First, the opening question changed. In 2001 people rang to ask about availability. Could you come, and when. By the late twenty tens, people rang to talk about something somebody else had written about us.
That is a complete inversion of the mechanism described in Section Two. The judgement had moved from after the work, by the person who received it, to before the work, by a stranger.
Second, a new step appeared in the middle. People would ring, raise the review, work out in the course of the conversation that they were talking to a human being, and then book.
That step did not exist before, and it costs something every single time. Somebody arrives requiring to be persuaded of something that was never previously in question. That there is a person here. Section Ten has a name for what that step is made of, and who pays for it.
Third, the price expectation did not move. We expected it would. Comparison is supposed to drive prices down, and this is the finding that surprised us most. It did not. What people expected to pay stayed roughly where it was.
What changed instead was what they thought they were buying. Here is his account of what a customer in 2026 believes they are assessing.
Customers have no idea what they are paying for other than pure water, and everyone now uses a brush. That is the common perception and the qualifying data for consumers.
Pure water. A brush.
That is it. That is the entire technical vocabulary the market has acquired in a decade of being online. Two signifiers, both of which every operator in the country now possesses, neither of which distinguishes anybody from anybody.
Compare it against Section Two. In 2001 the thing being judged was the frames. A physical difference, on a house, visible from a pavement, checkable against next door by anybody walking past. In 2026 the thing being judged is whether the van says pure water on it.
The trade did not get less skilled. The available vocabulary for describing skill collapsed, and it collapsed into exactly two terms, both of which are inputs rather than outcomes. Nobody is judging the result any more. They are judging the equipment.
That is Porter's substitution arriving in a form nobody would recognise as quantification. A number is not required. A pair of standardised labels will do the same job, provided everybody agrees to use them and stops looking at the windows.
A specific kind of phone call became common, and it opens the same way every time. Last cleaner charged five pounds. Can you beat it.
There is one question that sorts this call, and it takes four seconds. When were your windows last cleaned?
I do not know. Or, about a year ago.
That answer tells you that the previous arrangement was not a service that lapsed. It was a price that was shopped, once, some time ago, and is now being shopped again.
And, this is his account, from twenty five years of it, that customer complains. Reliably. And that customer is frequently the one behind closed curtains in the evening, not answering the door to the sole trader who has come for his three pounds. Or his six. Or his twelve, depending on the era.
We are stating that as this business's experience and not as a finding about people in general, because it is an impression formed over years and not a count, and because Section One does not let us dress a pattern up as data.
But there is something structural underneath it, and it is not about anybody's character. Shopping a price and buying a service are two different transactions, and the second one, the one Section Six describes, the recurring arrangement with a specific person, is the one the current channel is worst at producing.
The cost of doing this work has risen sharply. Fuel, primarily, and everything else that has risen with the cost of living. The going rate has not moved with it. Plenty of operators are still charging twelve to fifteen pounds.
Two things follow, and he has watched both happen.
Work gets concentrated geographically. If the rate will not move, the only remaining variable is travel, so rounds contract into tighter and tighter local areas to strip out the cost of getting there.
And the service range contracts too. Most providers start with a full set of tools. The gutter kit, the pressure washer, the render equipment. Things break. Replacing them costs money the rate no longer generates. So they stop offering those services and end up doing windows only, not by choice but by attrition.
The evidence for that second pattern is trade forums, trade posts, and conversations with other operators over two decades. That is not a survey and we are not presenting it as one. It is the accumulated impression of somebody inside the trade, offered as exactly that.
But note what it describes, because it is Section Nine's argument arriving from an unexpected direction. A market that cannot support tool replacement will produce operators who can only sell the one service that needs the least equipment. Nobody decided the trade should narrow. It narrowed because the rate stayed still while the costs did not.
So there was no single moment. Here is what there was instead, and it is his own account.
Five years in which the public record of this business was substantially written by people who had never bought anything from it. Reviews from people who had not had a service. Statements about who we are and what we do that are not true.
And a set of things the format has no room for. That we do not work in the rain. That a hospital appointment cannot be moved. That the person doing the work is disabled. None of those is a defence available in a review box, because a review box does not take defences. It takes a number and a paragraph, and the paragraph is not addressed to you.
Underneath all of it, in his words, is something with no sociology attached to it at all. We want to feed our children and pay our bills.
This is Article Three's territory and we are not going to take it over. Reviewing Culture deals with the mechanics. Why a single negative outweighs many positives, why the people most motivated to write are the least representative, what can and cannot be done about a false review. That is where this belongs and that is where it is dealt with.
What belongs here is one narrower observation, which is this section's whole point. The transition was not that a competitor outspent us. It was that the thing being evaluated stopped being the work.
In 2001 the assessment was made by the person who received the service, on the evidence of their own house, repeatedly, over years. By 2020 a large part of it was made by people with no relationship to the service at all, in a format with no room for circumstances, and it arrived before the first conversation rather than after the fortieth.
That is not a marketing problem and no amount of advertising budget answers it. Section Nine explains why the mechanism exists. Section Eleven is about how often this shape recurs.
One last change, and it is the one that would have been hardest to predict in 2001. People stopped answering the door.
Not everybody, and not always. Plenty are at work, which is ordinary and always was. But in his account of the last three to five years, most people will not come to the door, including when the windows are open, including when they can see you and you can see them.
The trade's word for the resulting job is a blind clean. The work is done, nobody is seen, nobody speaks.
Set that against Section Two, where the entire business was built by knocking on doors and a refusal sounded like, no thank you. The same act now mostly produces no response at all.
